The authors cite reams of research showing that the unemployed were likelier to vote for the Communists or the Social Democrats. One uniquely German factor that might help explain the Nazis' rise are the harsh war reparations, totaling percent of Germany's GDP, that World War I's victors imposed under the Treaty of Versailles.
As early as , John Maynard Keynes was warning that the economic pain caused by forcing Germany to pay that debt could lead to the rise of a dictatorship. But the authors note that Germany's debt was mostly not repaid; US President Herbert Hoover announced a moratorium on the payments in , and then they were suspended by the Allies in the Lausanne Conference in That's where austerity comes in.
He raised income taxes on high earners by an average of 10 percent, and slashed unemployment, pension, and welfare benefits. The economic consequences were horrific. GDP fell by 15 percent, as did government revenue. Unemployment increased from Britain, by contrast, actually increased government spending during this period.
And, the authors find, areas that saw bigger increases in their average tax rates also saw larger vote shares for the Nazi Party in the July , November , and March elections. They find similar results if you define austerity as state and local spending cuts, or use a measure combining both spending cuts and changes in income or wage tax rates.
According to one estimate, a 1 percent increase in spending cuts is associated with a 1. The results are even stronger if you look only at cuts to municipal pensions, unemployment support, and health care, and they hold up if you use Nazi party membership as the dependent variable, rather than Nazi vote share.
The difference between being 8 percent short of a Reichstag majority and 11 percent short might not seem very large. His rise to power was not purely electoral: the election was characterized by widespread violent intimidation, especially targeting Social Democrats and Communists, by Nazi militias. At the time of the election, German President Paul von Hindenburg had already issued the Reichstag Fire Decree, giving Hitler vast powers to suppress dissent.
So why did the Nazis, rather than the Communists or the Social Democrats, benefit from anti-austerity fervor? The theory behind this plan was simple:. It looked as if the government was at least trying to do something constructive for the people of Germany It would take people out of the cities and lessen the chance of social upheaval.
The major problem was that the plan had no support from Hindenburg. The president was himself a major land-owner in Prussia and here was his chancellor wanting to break-up these very estates that Hindenburg owned. In the November elections the Nazi vote fell from But they were still the biggest party. He offered Hitler the role of Chancellor in a government provided von Schleicher was in charge of defence.
Hitler refused. Without Nazi support, von Schleicher was unable to gain parliamentary support for his government. Von Papen wanted revenge on von Schleicher. He plotted with Hitler to have him ousted.
Hindenburg was already frustrated with von Schleicher, so when a new government was proposed with Hitler as Chancellor, von Papen as Vice-Chancellor and a cabinet largely composed of non-Nazis, he asked von Schleicher to resign. The new government was appointed on 30th January When Hitler accepted the Chancellorship in January , he was one of only three Nazis in a Cabinet of eleven. Von Papen had assured Hindenburg that he could keep Hitler under control.
0コメント